About 8,000 delegates are to pick today the All Progressives Congress (APC) presidential candidate in Lagos.
The five presidential aspirants are former Head of State Gen. Muhammadu Buhari (a three-time presidential candidate); former Vice President Atiku Abubakar (ex-presidential candidate and aspirant); Governor Rochas Okorocha (ex-presidential aspirant); Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso and pharmacist-turned newspaper publisherDr. Sam Nda-Isaiah.
The presidential primary election is significant for six reasons.
They are:
•unique and historic merger of the party;
•shape of the party which has made the progressives to cohabit with the conservatives;
•increasing socio-economic problems and desperate desire for change in the country;
•urgent need for alternative to the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), which has ruled since 1999; and
•whether or not the APC coalition (a party of heavyweights and ex-this or ex-that) will sink its differences to produce a candidate without breaking up.
Although the party threw its presidential ticket open, indications emerged last night that the delegates might support power shift to the North.
The development has significantly left the race for the four Northern aspirants namely Buhari (North-West), Atiku (North-East), Kwankwaso (North-West) and Nda-Isaiah (North-Central).
The choice of the candidate is likely to be determined by many factors, including the outcome of the primaries at the state level, forces from the North, antecedents of the aspirants; their political and personal pedigree; and the influence of the 14 APC governors, who control party structures in their states.
Other indices which may shape the results of the primaries, are the voting power of statutory and elected delegates, including members of the Board of Trustees of APC; members of the National and State Executive Committees of the party; and members of the National Assembly and State Houses of Assembly.
Also, some of the national leaders of APC will play a crucial role in deciding the flag bearer.
These leaders include Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, Chief Ogbonnaya Onu, former Interim National Chairman Chief Bisi Akande, National Chairman Chief John Odigie-Oyegun, National Secretary Mai Mala Buni, Senator Bukola Saraki, ex-Governors Danjuma Goje, Abdullahi Adamu, Bukar Abba Ibrahim, George Akumeand Sani Yerima.
Others are Speaker Aminu Tambuwal, Alh. Kawu Baraje, Mr. Audu Ogbeh, Senator Shuaibu Lawan,former Governors Segun Oni, Olagunsoye Oyinlola and Adamu Aliero, among others.
But a highly-placed source, who spoke in confidence, said: “If you look at Article 12(1) of the Constitution of APC, the governors, APC leaders who control state structure, and members of the National and State Houses of Assembly will wield electoral powers to determine our flag bearer.
“With 14 out of the 36 states under the control of APC governors, any aspirant who secures the nod of these governors can conveniently win the election at the convention.
“Whether we like it or not, the governors seem to hold the ace.”
A document obtained by our correspondent last night listed members of the Electoral College as follows: all members of BOT, National Chairman and all members of the National Executive Committee(NEC); serving and Presidents and Vice-Presidents who are members of the party; serving and past governors; past and serving deputy governors who are members of the party; serving and past members of the National Assembly, who are members of the party; serving and past Speakers, Deputy Speakers and other principal officers of State Houses of Assembly who are members of the party; and the members of the State Working Committee including those of the FCT.
Those eligible to vote also include all party chairmen and secretaries of all the local government areas and local council development authorities (LCDAs); all elected chairmen of local government councils and LCDAs who are members of the party; and three elected delegates at least one of which must be a woman from each LGA and LCDA.
As at press time, the aspirants have started intense horse-trading with their foot-soldiers relocating to Lagos where the convention is holding.
Going by the composition of the electoral college, the hot spots with huge votes are Kano(44 LGAs); Lagos (20 LGAs); Oyo (33 LGAs); Osun(30 LGAs); Borno (27 LGAs); Imo (27 LGAs) Sokoto(23 LGAs); Rivers (23 LGAs); Ogun (20); Edo(18); Yobe (17) Kwara(16); Zamfara(14 LGAs); and Nasarawa(13).
Another party source added: “Though the 22 other states are important, they do not command huge volume of votes like those ones where APC is controlling the Executive, the Local Governments, the Legislature and other statutory delegates.
“For instance, there is no APC government again in Adamawa State, unlike when ex-Governor Murtala Nyako was in charge of the state. This may be to the disadvantage of ex-VP Atiku Abubakar, whose home base support is weak.
“In Buhari’s home state of Katsina, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) is not only in control of the state, it recently swept the Local Government poll in all the 34 local governments in the state. The APC boycotted the election. With this scenario, Buhari is not in a position of strength at the home front.
“Sam Nda-Isaiah is also from a PDP-controlled Niger State with 25 local governments. He is also constrained from the outset due to limited number of delegates from his state who can vote for him in sympathy.
“But Kwankwaso and Rochas Okorocha are solid at home because they are in total charge of all statutory and elected delegates in their states. They, therefore, reach out to other delegates from a voting premise.”
The real contest among the aspirants is in their ability to woo delegates from all the states.
The Chairman of the National Convention Committee (NCC), Dr. Kayode Fayemi, has, however, assured of a credible election at the convention.
Fayemi said: “I have no doubt in my mind. That is why we have a very huge task on our hands as the convention committee. I am reasonably convinced that we have serious minded aspirants. And once we do our job in terms of the process being credible, transparent and it is seen to be transparent by all and sundry, everybody would accept the outcome. That is our own belief.
“But we also have post-convention conflict management mechanisms. There must be something in it for all players. We want to win an election; the presidency of Nigeria is not the only position. People want to serve and those contesting on our platform are politicians of extensive credible experience. I would like to think that is it service that is propelling them.
“Of course they want to be president but the presidential candidature is not available due to the fact that they did not win the primaries there are other ways they can serve and I believe they will all want to live up to their undertaking.”
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